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voyeur
Visible Light Wave
USA
577 Posts |
 Posted - 02/27/2003 : 13:49:18
While I think their are many reasons for people to be in space in spite of the ignorance of those opposed to it, this one should be enough for anyone that has an ounce of sense.http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/DyeHard/dyehard.html What happened over Tanguska in 1913 is still debated and not easily explainable by current knowledge. If it happened once, it can happen again soon. Only having people in space can prevent a future catastrophe. Only by putting people in space will we gather the knowledge needed for people to operate there. What they did in the Bruce Willis movie is pure baloney, you can't mount an effort like that without having done it before many times.
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Edited by - voyeur on 02/27/2003 13:52:48
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russ_watters
Radio Wave
USA
53 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2003 : 17:00:43
quote:
What happened over Tanguska in 1913 is still debated and not easily explainable by current knowledge. If it happened once, it can happen again soon. Only having people in space can prevent a future catastrophe. Only by putting people in space will we gather the knowledge needed for people to operate there.
I think scientists tend to agree that Tunguska was a comet that exploded before impact. Yes, it can happen again. And yes, it is preventable (though its not an easy thing to do). Tunguska was relatively small though and anything bigger than a couple hundred yards would be difficult to deflect unless we found it long before impact - a very difficult task.When you say "people in space" do you mean speficically MANNED spaceflight? Many people (I'm starting to come around) believe that the era of manned spaceflight is over. Robert Park, an outspoken physicist has testified before congress that the scientific community regards the International Space Station as the single biggest OBSTACLE our efforts at space exploration face. I would tend to agree.
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voyeur
Visible Light Wave
USA
577 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2003 : 18:18:46
You are right, they will be difficult to detect. The only way is a significant human presence in space. We can either get out there ensure the continued survival of our species or use the Rocky defense (if you saw any of the Rocky movies you may notice he blocked most of the punches with his face). I don't want to stop asteroids with a human shield.I guess in the cosmic scheme of things it doesn't matter if the human race survives 50 years or 50 million but I would rather our species went on rather than sitting here and getting blasted sooner or later and it is INEVITABLE if we do nothing.
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lbooda
Gamma Wave
USA
2030 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2003 : 19:11:07
And don't forget the marauding black holes, cosmic strings and transient supernovae. We don't need an excuse to send man into space, but a genuine reason.http://www.quantumdream.net
Phase reality!
{^,^}
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CJames
Visible Light Wave
USA
659 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2003 : 21:56:10
There's also more mining materials in your average metalic based asteroid than on the entire planet Earth. If that's not reason enough to get off this planet, I don't know what is. Uh, scratch that. The sun will die, the Earth is in a declining orbit, we're running out of resources. There are plenty of reasons. We got to get off this rock sooner or later. Best to prepare when we're in the position we're at now, not wait until we can't even scrounge up enough energy off this planet to leave it...----------------------
I've been away for months, my physics has grown rusty...forgive me. I'm back, and I vow never to make that mistake again.
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voyeur
Visible Light Wave
USA
577 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2003 : 22:43:55
Why would you think an asteroid hit is nothing to worry about or an unreal possibility? The Tanguska event would have killed people for hundreds of miles if it hit a populated area (and I heard once that something that size would hit us every few hundred years), so would the hit that caused the crater in Arizona. An asteroid hit could cause massive vulcanism. The super volcano that is Yellowstone national park could be triggered by a hit and it would cover the west with lava. Mankinds biggest fault is rampant ignorance and it will be our eventual destruction.Over the past few years, every time I happened to have watched a WWF wrestling event with their fireworks I thought that using fireworks indoors was stupid and it inevitably would start a fire and kill people. I am sure that if I had posted that thought people would have said it was nothing to worry about. Well, tell that to the families of the dead from that RI nightclub fire. We are reactionary and that is the height of stupidity. If we had gone forward full steam into space since 1969 we would have in place a means by now to prevent another destructive hit from an asteroid. Laugh if you want but you may not be laughing for long. I have had a few dreams come true and I have had many about us being nailed by something lika an asteroid and I am convinced that I will live long enough to see that dream come true.
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CJames
Visible Light Wave
USA
659 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2003 : 02:27:15
Actually, I think it was once a century that a tunguska level event is supposed to occur. I could be way off. We were very lucky with that one. Of all places on Earth, it decided to hit one of the most barren places around. Would a tunguska sized meteor have been large enough to generate tidal waves? Probably not.I remember hearing the energy released compaired to the energy of nuclear bombs. I can't remember how many hyroshima's they said it was, but I'm thinking it was definitely more than a hundred. Been a while since I looked into this stuff. I'm probably way off with all of it.  I'm thinking it was much much more than on par with hydrogen fusion bombs. ----------------------
I've been away for months, my physics has grown rusty...forgive me. I'm back, and I vow never to make that mistake again.
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russ_watters
Radio Wave
USA
53 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2003 : 21:38:08
quote:
I remember hearing the energy released compaired to the energy of nuclear bombs. I can't remember how many hyroshima's they said it was, but I'm thinking it was definitely more than a hundred.
quote:
The Tanguska event would have killed people for hundreds of miles if it hit a populated area
There is LOTS of conflicting information about it on the net, and then there are conspiracy theories on top of that. There are anecdotes of houses being knocked over from hundreds of miles that are almost certainly false. There is a famous picture FORTY miles from the epicenter showing upright tree-trunks, which gives you an idea of the real blast radius. The best estimate I could find for the yield was 15-20MT, which is roughly 1000 times the Hiroshima blast. That makes it big enough to level a modern city. And thats pretty bad. But as bad as it COULD be, like anything else in life, you have to play the odds:Altogether, densely populated land (and I'm not even just talking cities) is probably no more than 1% of the actual surface area of the earth. So even if we get one a century, odds are still only 1% PER CENTURY that a major population center will be hit. Thats not a high risk. Also, such incidents make the imagination run wild:
quote:
Why would you think an asteroid hit is nothing to worry about or an unreal possibility? The Tanguska event would have killed people for hundreds of miles if it hit a populated area (and I heard once that something that size would hit us every few hundred years), so would the hit that caused the crater in Arizona. An asteroid hit could cause massive vulcanism. The super volcano that is Yellowstone national park could be triggered by a hit and it would cover the west with lava. Mankinds biggest fault is rampant ignorance and it will be our eventual destruction.
Setting aside the overstatement of the actual damage, the RISK is also overstated. Do you worry about being struck by lightning on a daily basis? If you go by recorded history, and look at the REAL ODDS of being killed by an asteroid, you have to go into the 12th decimal place to even see it. Its literally lower than 1 in a billion. Yes one big, unlucky even could be catastrophic, but there are SO MANY what if's in the world that if you worry about all of them, you'll be a very unhappy man. Your energy could be better spent elsewhere.Example: What do you think is more likely to destory New York City, a nuclear missile or an asteroid? If you had $500 billion (1/4 of the US anual budget) to spend on a defense against one of those possibilities (with a 75% success rate), which would you spend your money on? I'd put the odds on the missile somewhere on the order of 1/1,000 to 1/1,000,000. I'd put the odds on the asteroid at somewhere on the order of 1/1,000,000,000 to 1/1,000,000,000,000. My money would go on the missile defense.
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Edited by - russ_watters on 02/28/2003 21:45:23
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CJames
Visible Light Wave
USA
659 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2003 : 22:11:52
One thing that is very interesting is the statistic that you are more likely to die of meteor impact than you are flying a plane. This sound ridiculous, but it's true. It is more likely that a meteor large enough to kill off large portions of the population would hit within your lifetime, than it is you would die of a plane. LOL, and don't even get me started on comparing that with winning the lottery.What does this mean? It certainly doesn't mean everybody should cover there heads because a giant meteor is going to kill us all very soon. We don't worry about driving cars, and they're a much higher immediate risk. What it does mean, is that a meteor large enough to kill off the human population WILL hit Earth sooner or later, and on the span of millions of years, it is a real threat. By familiarizing ourselves with space travel at this early stage, we are strengthening our abilities as a species against threats like this, as well as all the other threats like completely running out of raw resources etc. It's true we have plenty of time, but if every generation decides the same thing, we go nowhere. ----------------------
I've been away for months, my physics has grown rusty...forgive me. I'm back, and I vow never to make that mistake again.
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voyeur
Visible Light Wave
USA
577 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2003 : 22:41:17
I agree except for one thing, it is as likely to happen tomorrow as any time. Also, many psychics have seen this kind of destruction happening although most don't know the cause. We do know that a super volcano that has erupted before is now swelling in Yellowstone park and the evidence is that the last time it erupted it covered thousands of square miles with lava. I don't know if anything can be done about it but it is a fact we aren't trying to do anything. Our history is riddled with waiting for disasters to happen and then trying to cope afterwards. When are we going to learn from our mistakes? After it is too late?
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FZ
Gamma Wave
United Kingdom
2222 Posts |
Posted - 02/28/2003 : 23:32:29
quote:
Also, many psychics have seen this kind of destruction happening although most don't know the cause.
Huh?-------------
"....this will be one battle we will regret. Mark my words..."
FZ 11/14/2002
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russ_watters
Radio Wave
USA
53 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2003 : 21:18:37
quote:
Originally posted by FZ:
quote:
Also, many psychics have seen this kind of destruction happening although most don't know the cause.
Huh?
Yikes, maybe I shouldn't have bothered.
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cragwolf
Micro Wave
Australia
133 Posts |
Posted - 03/06/2003 : 06:02:21
quote:
Originally posted by CJames:
Actually, I think it was once a century that a tunguska level event is supposed to occur. I could be way off. We were very lucky with that one. Of all places on Earth, it decided to hit one of the most barren places around.
Actually, most of the earth's surface is more barren then Tunguska. Think about it.
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