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schwartzchildradius999
X-Ray Wave
USA
1858 Posts |
 Posted - 02/14/2003 : 10:56:01
Poll Question:
One year from now, what will the world geo-political scene be like? (if other, don't vote, post!)
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FZ
Gamma Wave
United Kingdom
2224 Posts |
 Posted - 02/14/2003 : 20:25:06
None of the above? Here's my particular brand of pessimism.
1. UN and NATO will be destroyed forever. New system of continental/religious alliances. (ie. pre WWI) WTO suffers from widespread sanctions and trade restrictions.
2. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen etc face radical change of government or US occupation. Anti-US/anti-Israel Arabic league is formed.
3. Bush plays the religion card. Not much to lose anymore.
4. Al-Queda gains access to nuclear/chemical/biological weapons through smuggling from Iraq, or by new pro-Taliban governments. Threaten Israel with nuclear attack. Possibly "dirty" bomb in major US city smuggled in through undefendable Canadian border.
5. President declares state of emergency. Some civil unrest but little actual action. Plays further into paranoia. Same for UK, and many Western powers.
6. NK silenced by intervention from China. Continued agression on their hands.
7. US may use tactical nuclear arms in Iraq, following iraqis using small supplies of chemical mustard gas. (without effect) Probably not. War is over quickly with minimal US losses, but massive Iraqi deaths, both civilian and military. Plenty of government leaked tapes to popularise the "clean" war myth. Use of cluster munitions, DU ammo and napalm widespread. Baghdad bombed but not destroyed. Saddam escapes - little remaining weapons are found, either removed or never had been there.
8. Puppet leader installed. Kurdish tribes/Shi'ite cause civil war, crushed by US military. Surivivors join Al-Queda. (May draw other nations into the battle) Turkey takes over North Iraq, deports Kurds from region.
9. Hamid Karzai becomes dictator of Afghanistan. US supports him. Assassinated shortly later. Ex-Taliban general takes over.
10. US pulls out of International human rights convention.
11. Suicide bombers begin attacks in the US. US responds by taking Sharon like actions. (bomb Iraq again) Hamas forms alliance with Al-Queda, generates prescence in Iraq.-------------
"....this will be one battle we will regret. Mark my words..."
FZ 11/14/2002
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Andy
Radio Wave
United Kingdom
51 Posts |
 Posted - 02/14/2003 : 22:08:37
a very grim assesment there and i hope that it doesnt happen but can see it happening, can anybody else see a different outcome to the current situation other than massive civilian casualties? I wouldnt put it passed Iraq or N korea to use nuclear weapons thats if iraq does have them and then it would leave the americans with no choice but to retaliate with a nuclear strike of its own.
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voyeur
Visible Light Wave
USA
577 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2003 : 23:24:17
I predict that the so-called indecision (yeah, right) by Bush will have turned to resolve and we will have attacked Iraq, removed a secular government that wouldn't normally tolerate terrorists operating in it and opened it up for an eventual take-over by Muslim extremists (replace the q with n to see how that scenerio works out), we will have added who knows how many to the number of people who hate us (including terrorists) and Bush will be attacking someone else in order to be on a war-time footing when he is up for re-election in the hopes that it will help him get re-elected (especially if our economy is still in the dumps, a bad economy next summer will guarantee he attacks someone in my always humble opinion).
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schwartzchildradius999
X-Ray Wave
USA
1858 Posts |
Posted - 02/15/2003 : 03:43:53
Truly terrifying scenerio, FZ, mostly because it seems quite plausable."The Mad Road. Lonely. Leading around the bend into the openings of space toward the horizon." JKerouac
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FZ
Gamma Wave
United Kingdom
2224 Posts |
Posted - 02/18/2003 : 17:06:30
quote:
8. Puppet leader installed. Kurdish tribes/Shi'ite cause civil war, crushed by US military.
quote:
Tuesday February 18, 2003 Tony Blair today refused to specify what sort of regime might follow Saddam Hussein's in Iraq - despite making the "moral case" for overthrowing the Iraqi dictator by military action.
The prime minister avoided committing to a democratic regime at least three times under questioning from reporters at today's monthly press conference.
..... Asked if Britain would support breakaway elements which wanted to create a Kurdish state in what is now northern Iraq or a Shi'ite Islamic state in the south, Mr Blair insisted that his commitment to Iraq's territorial integrity was "absolute".
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,11538,898137,00.html
I really hope this doesn't mean what I think it means.....
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"....this will be one battle we will regret. Mark my words..."
FZ 11/14/2002
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schwartzchildradius999
X-Ray Wave
USA
1858 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2003 : 06:19:18
I have a prediction for March:
By March 27, 2003, the US will engage in an invasion of Iraqi cities.
Less than 3 days later, North Korea will attack Japan with nuclear weapons.JUPPITER OMNIPOTES, AUDACIBUS ANNUE COEPTIS
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